BTC slumped under $104,000 on Friday.
Bear in mind the ‘Uptober’ narrative? October, the month that kicks off Q4, is promised to be a bullish one. There have been excessive hopes for the 2025 version as effectively.
And it began on the correct foot as BTC exploded out of the gate and peaked above $126,000 to chart a brand new all-time excessive. Thus, it had added over $16,000 of worth within the span of simply 10 days. Nevertheless, issues reversed simply as rapidly, and it misplaced much more floor in opposition to the dollar within the following 10 days. Listed here are a number of the potential causes behind this huge crash.
Trump-Led Uncertainty
Probably the most vital value collapse, which occurred on the finish of the earlier enterprise week, was largely attributed to world political uncertainty prompted by US President Donald Trump. The POTUS threatened China with a brand new wave of tariffs after accusing its authorities of a scarcity of transparency in sure areas.
Though such threats have taken place often ever since he took workplace, BTC reacted with a direct correction from over $122,000 to below $117,000. The state of affairs worsened within the following hours, particularly since futures positions started to get wrecked in a very leveraged market.
The outcomes have been violent to say the least as bitcoin slumped to $110,000 on some exchanges, and all the best way all the way down to $101,000 on others. What’s significantly fascinating right here is that the complete calamity may need been one big misunderstanding between the 2 superpowers. Studies began to emerge that it was exaggerated, and the stress eased within the following days. With it, BTC’s value recovered to $116,000.
The main focus then turned to a different flammable geopolitical scene – the Ukraine/Russia warfare. On Thursday, Trump met with Russia’s Putin, and BTC began to lose traction because the assembly was going down. On Friday, the POTUS was visited by Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Studies indicated that the Ukrainian chief may not obtain the requested Tomahawk cruise missiles.
It’s additionally value mentioning the US authorities shutdown, which has continued for over two weeks now.
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US Banking Disaster?
The US banking system noticed shades of the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Financial institution when two regional organizations – Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance – revealed some controversial knowledge that stirred worry into traders. The previous disclosed a $50 million charge-off tied to 2 business loans in California, whereas the latter initiated a fraud lawsuit in opposition to a borrower, which fueled doubts about its mortgage portfolio high quality.
Traders have been spooked not solely within the US however additionally in Asia and Europe, as evidenced by the drop in inventory costs on Friday for main banks equivalent to Deutsche Financial institution, Barclays, and Société Générale.
Though BTC is meant to be the reply to cracks within the conventional monetary system, such crises usually hurt it, particularly within the brief time period.
ETF Exodus
After a powerful 9-day interval that began in late September, wherein the spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted almost $6 billion, the pattern reversed on the finish of the earlier enterprise week, with a minor internet outflow of $4.5 million.
Nevertheless, the withdrawals intensified on Monday ($326.4 million), Wednesday ($104.1 million), and significantly on Thursday when greater than $530 million left these monetary merchandise. Friday was additionally within the purple, with greater than $366 million leaving the funds.
The entire quantity withdrawn from the US-based ETFs exceeded $1.2 billion for the week, which undoubtedly will increase the strain on the underlying asset.
Gold Up, BTC Down
In instances of uncertainty, traders are likely to flock to safe-haven belongings. Though this 12 months has had its ups and downs, they’ve proven a considerably totally different method. Gold has been the popular funding instrument for a lot of, which is clear from its huge rally in 2025.
It charts new all-time highs nearly each day, with the most recent being at nearly $4,400/oz on Friday. On the identical time, BTC’s efficiency has been fairly underwhelming recently. This might prove critics like Peter Schiff right (at the very least for the second) that the dear steel remains to be the popular selection, although many BTC proponents have argued prior to now decade that the cryptocurrency is ‘digital gold.’
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