Cathie Wooden is arguing that the following section of US coverage and macro might recreate an early-Eighties fashion risk-on regime, one which, in her telling, strengthens the case for bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier even because it complicates the “digital gold” narrative. In a put up on X, the ARK Make investments CEO said “the following three years could possibly be Reaganomics on steroids,” pointing to deregulation, tax cuts, “sound financial coverage,” and “peace via power” as elements for a stronger greenback and capped gold costs.
Her January 15 “New Yr letter,” titled Cathie Wooden’s 2026 Outlook: The US Economic system Is A Coiled Spring, lays out the mechanics behind that analogy and locations crypto explicitly contained in the coverage and productiveness story.
A “Coiled Spring” Macro Thesis
Wooden’s central declare is that the US has regarded sturdier than it truly is as a result of weak spot has rotated via rate-sensitive pockets quite than hitting the entire financial system directly.
“Regardless of sustained actual gross home product (GDP) development through the previous three years, the underlying US financial system has suffered a rolling recession and has advanced right into a coiled spring that might bounce again powerfully through the subsequent few years. In response to COVID-related provide shocks, the record-breaking 22-fold surge within the Fed funds fee from 0.25% in March 2022 to five.5% within the sixteen months ended July 2023 pushed housing, manufacturing, non-AI capital spending, and low-to-middle revenue America into recession.”
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She anchors the housing leg with a particular trough: present dwelling gross sales fell 40% from a 5.9 million annual fee in January 2021 to three.5 million in October 2023, which she notes is “a degree final seen in November 2010.”
From there, Wooden pivots to coverage impulse and cash-flow reduction. “Because of the confluence of deregulation and decrease taxes (together with tariffs), inflation, and rates of interest, the rolling recession which has characterised the previous few years within the US might flip shortly and sharply through the subsequent yr and past. Deregulation is unleashing innovation in each sector, led by the primary AI and Crypto Czar, David Sacks, within the AI and digital property area. In the meantime, decrease taxes on suggestions, additional time, and social safety ought to hand US customers vital refunds this quarter, doubtlessly driving actual disposable revenue development up from ~2% at an annual fee through the second half of 2025 to ~8.3% this quarter.”
She additionally argues company money flows could possibly be boosted by accelerated depreciation, writing that it might push the efficient company tax fee “down towards 10%,” with 100% first-year depreciation for gear, software program and home R&D made everlasting and retroactive to January 1, 2025.
Gold, Bitcoin, And The Greenback
Wooden’s inflation case is concrete and component-driven. She factors to grease falling from about $124 on March 8, 2022 to a degree that’s roughly 53% decrease, and down about 22% year-over-year as of ARK’s January 12 knowledge lower. She provides that single-family dwelling sale costs are down about 15% from the October 2022 peak, whereas present dwelling worth inflation (three-month shifting common) decelerated from roughly 24% YoY in June 2021 to about 1.3%.
On labor, she cites non-farm productiveness up 1.9% YoY (third quarter), compensation per man-hour up 3.2%, and unit labor value inflation at 1.2%. She then pushes a real-time examine: Truflation at 1.7% YoY as of January 7, practically 100 bps under CPI-based inflation.
The crypto hook comes via her try to separate gold’s current run from bitcoin’s position in portfolios. “Throughout 2025, the gold worth appreciated 65% as the value of bitcoin slipped 6%. Whereas many observers have attributed the 166% surge within the gold worth from $1,600 to $4,300 because the finish of the US fairness bear market in October 2022 to the chance of inflation, one other interpretation is that world wealth creation… has outpaced the ~1.8% annualized improve within the gold provide globally.”
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Wooden then leans on provide schedules and correlations. She notes bitcoin’s provide is “mathematically metered” to rise about 0.82% per yr for the following two years earlier than slowing to ~0.41%, and argues that diversification — not “digital gold” rhetoric — is the cleaner allocator lens. In ARK’s correlation matrix utilizing weekly returns from 1/1/2020 via 1/6/2026, bitcoin’s correlation is 0.14 to gold, 0.06 to bonds, and 0.28 to the S&P 500; the S&P 500–bonds correlation is proven at 0.27.
Lastly, she brings it again to FX: after a yr during which the trade-weighted greenback (DXY) fell 11% within the first half and 9% for the complete yr, Wooden argues that larger US returns on invested capital, pushed by fiscal, deregulation, and US-led technological breakthroughs, might push the greenback larger, echoing the early Reagan interval when “the greenback practically doubled.”
If Wooden’s “Reaganomics on steroids” framing positive aspects traction, the near-term market implication is much less a few single bitcoin worth goal and extra about positioning: a regime she expects to function falling inflation, decrease charges, and heavy AI capex (data-center programs funding up 47% to just about $500 billion in 2025, with an extra 20% to roughly $600 billion anticipated in 2026) is one the place allocators could revisit the place bitcoin sits on the chance spectrum, and whether or not its low cross-asset correlation is the extra sturdy thesis than any one-line comparability to gold.
Whereas Wooden’s 2026 outlook doesn’t publish a particular Bitcoin worth goal, ARK has beforehand outlined 2030 situations for BTC of roughly $300,000 (bear), $710,000 (base), and $1.2 million (bull).
At press time, BTC traded at $95,685.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
