XRP Price Dropped 68% the Last Time This Happened

XRP’s (XRP) onchain market construction resembles a setup that led to important losses in 2022 after the worth misplaced a key assist degree.

Key takeaways:

• XRP’s onchain construction mirrors the February 2022 setup that led to a 68% value drop. 

• XRP bulls should reclaim $2 to keep away from a deeper correction towards $1.10.

• XRP spot ETFs recorded a web outflow of $53.32 million, their second-ever day of outflows and the biggest since launch.

Earlier sign preceded 68% XRP value drop

Information from Glassnode warned that XRP’s present market construction “carefully resembles that of February 2022,” an incidence that finally preceded months of weak point. 

“XRP traders energetic over the 1W–1M window at the moment are accumulating under the associated fee foundation of the 6M–12M cohort,” the market intelligence firm wrote in a latest publish on X.

Associated: New SEC submissions press on self-custody and DeFi regulation

This creates a state of affairs the place newer patrons are in revenue, whereas mid-term holders sit on losses. This hole creates overhead strain over time if key assist ranges usually are not reclaimed. 

Glassnode added:

“As this construction persists, psychological strain on prime patrons continues to construct over time.” 

An analogous sample was seen in February 2022 when XRP was buying and selling at $0.78, which led to a 68% drawdown to $0.30 by June 2022. 

If historical past repeats itself, XRP could fall to as low as $1.40 if the support from $1.80 to $2 does not hold. 

$2 degree turns into a key psychological zone

The $2 degree is a key psychological threshold for XRP within the quick to medium time period. In an earlier evaluation, Glassnode found that every retest of $2 since early 2025 triggered $500 million to $1.2 billion in weekly realized losses, suggesting holders selected to exit their positions and lower their losses.

“This underscores how closely this degree influences spending habits.”

When the worth slides under this essential $2 degree, strain builds on holders who acquired XRP at greater ranges, whereas newer patrons accumulate at decrease ranges.

A 2022 fractal reinforces the significance of this degree, suggesting the worth might even see a deeper correction if it’s not reclaimed quickly.

For instance, the $0.55 degree was additionally a key assist degree up to now. It supported the worth from April 2021 to Could 2022, with every subsequent retest weakening the assist. The assist ultimately broke in Could 2022, resulting in a 48% drop to $0.28.

Equally, shedding the assist at $2 could set off a downward spiral, with the worth bottoming slightly below the 200-week shifting common at $1.03, simply as in 2022.

As Cointelegraph reported, XRP’s break under the 50-day easy shifting common (SMA) at $2 signifies that the bears are again within the sport, with draw back threat extending to $1.25.

XRP ETFs file their second day of outflows

On Tuesday, spot XRP ETFs recorded their second day of outflows since launch, totaling  $53 million, in response to knowledge from SoSoValue. This was $13 million greater than the one different outflow of $40 million, recorded on Jan. 7.

 These outflows sign warning amongst institutional traders or profit-taking amid broader crypto market weakness and risk-off sentiment, including to the sell-side strain.