A value zone that held as a flooring all through all of 2025 is now blocking XRP from recovering. The $1.80 stage — as soon as a dependable help — flipped to resistance in January 2026, and the token has not come near reclaiming it since. Till it does, one analyst says XRP stays “in serious trouble.”
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A Channel Break That Modified All the things
For many of final yr, XRP traded inside a big parallel channel with a ceiling close to $3.45 and a flooring round $1.80. The token stayed inside these boundaries at the same time as its value began slipping after hitting an all-time excessive of $3.60 in July 2025. Decrease highs and decrease lows piled up by way of the fourth quarter, however $1.80 held.
Then January got here. XRP closed the month under that stage for the primary time, and it has not seemed again. The $1.80 flooring grew to become a ceiling, and each try to push greater has run into that wall.
If I zoom out, I nonetheless see $XRP in serious trouble.
It’s clearly downtrending with a collection of decrease lows and decrease highs, and above all, it’s nonetheless under that key stage at $1.80.
So long as we don’t break this downtrend, we may count on that “no help zone” to be crammed. pic.twitter.com/mNuF8O8LWo
— Sjuul | AltCryptoGems (@AltCryptoGems) March 18, 2026
Analyst Sjuul of the AltCryptoGems channel laid out the state of affairs in a latest market breakdown. Zooming out to the day by day chart, he pointed to the sample of decrease lows and decrease highs that has outlined XRP’s price action because the July peak — a construction that leaves the broader downtrend absolutely intact no matter short-term bounces.
A 15% Rally That Nonetheless Went Nowhere
XRP did handle a stretch of positive factors between March 9 and 16 — seven up days out of eight, its finest run since September 2025. The token climbed 15% throughout that window, reclaiming $1.50 and shutting at $1.54 on March 16.
However the rally stalled virtually instantly. A push towards $1.60 bumped into resistance at $1.6074 earlier this week, and XRP has since pulled again on three consecutive days, now buying and selling round $1.46. The restoration, spectacular because it briefly seemed, by no means got here anyplace close to $1.80.
For context, XRP had dropped to $1.27 on February 28 throughout the preliminary market response to the Israel-Iran battle earlier than clawing again above $1.50. The March rally was largely a rebound from that low — not a development reversal.
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Two Eventualities, One Quantity
Sjuul sees the trail ahead as simple. XRP both reclaims $1.80 and pushes again contained in the parallel channel — invalidating the bearish setup — or it doesn’t, and the draw back danger grows sharply.
The extent he flags on the draw back is the $1.20 to $1.30 zone. That space provided no resistance throughout XRP’s explosive November 2024 rally, which is what analysts name a “no help zone” — a value vary the market blew by way of so quick that few patrons established positions there.
Since that rally, the zone has acted as a cushion throughout dips. If $1.80 continues to carry as resistance, Sjuul suggests XRP may fall again towards that vary.
Featured picture from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
