Bitcoin surged previous $121,000 at the moment, pushing in the direction of its all-time excessive because the fourth quarter of 2025 kicked off with renewed momentum for Bitcoin.
The rally follows a robust September end, when Bitcoin gained about 5% to shut round $114,000 — a efficiency that considerably defied Bitcoin’s status for seasonal weak point.
Traditionally, when September has ended within the inexperienced, Bitcoin has usually gone on to submit outsized fourth-quarter features. Knowledge from Bitcoin Journal Professional shows that in years similar to 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, fourth-quarter rallies averaged greater than 50%.
That seasonal development has already earned October the nickname “Uptober” amongst merchants. Since 2015, the month has produced common features of 21.8%, with November including one other 10.8%.
If historical past rhymes, Bitcoin might be on monitor to clear $150,000 earlier than the top of the yr.
Bitcoin all-time excessive coming?
Based on Bitcoin Journal Professional knowledge, Bitcoin has climbed practically 3% in 24 hours, advancing from round $117,500 to simply over $121,000. Over the past month, Bitcoin has notched a acquire of greater than 9%, rising from roughly $110,700.
On a year-to-date foundation, Bitcoin has delivered a return of 27%, underscoring its resilience regardless of ongoing volatility throughout broader markets.
With costs now lower than 3% away from the all-time excessive of over $124,000, it seems to be just like the stage is ready for a breakout if shopping for stress continues.
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum
This newest surge got here as traditional economic metrics reeled from the U.S. authorities’s shutdown at midnight after Congress did not go a funding invoice. With Wall Road beneath stress and financial knowledge releases now on maintain, traders flocked to arduous belongings.
This yr’s features also build on April’s halving occasion, which reduce Bitcoin’s new provide in half — a milestone that has traditionally preceded vital upward stress on worth. On the identical time, key liquidity indicators are flashing inexperienced.
International M2 cash provide progress, stablecoin issuance, and a rally in gold — which Bitcoin has usually tracked with a lag — all level to strengthening demand.
Citigroup analysts this week set a 12-month projection for Bitcoin at $181,000, citing sturdy inflows that might attain $7.5 billion by December.
“We’re extra constructive on Bitcoin in comparison with Ether, because it captures an outsized portion of incremental flows into crypto markets,” Citi analysts wrote, including {that a} friendlier regulatory surroundings may maintain momentum into 2026.
With Bitcoin already logging document highs in 2025, the fourth quarter now looms as a decisive stretch.
