Retail crypto suffered most since January 2025, whereas ETFs and DATs masked true losses for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, in line with Hougan.
Bitwise Asset Administration’s Chief Funding Officer, Matt Hougan, has acknowledged that the cryptocurrency market has been in a full-blown “crypto winter” since January 2025.
The exec mentioned that indicators counsel the downturn could also be nearer to ending than starting.
Constructive Information Isn’t Driving Costs
In a current publish titled “The Depths of Crypto Winter,” Hougan explained that, regardless of ongoing optimistic developments in adoption, regulation, and institutional involvement, the market is in a extreme bear market.
Hougan famous that Bitcoin has fallen virtually 39% from its October 2025 all-time excessive, whereas Ethereum is down 53%, and plenty of different digital belongings are performing even worse. He mentioned this shouldn’t be interpreted as a short-term correction or a minor dip, however somewhat as a deep, drawn-out bear market just like earlier crypto winters, together with these in 2018 and 2022. In response to him, elements comparable to extreme leverage and widespread profit-taking by long-term holders contributed to the present downturn.
Regardless of developments comparable to a brand new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, who’s supportive of Bitcoin, growing institutional hiring in crypto, and rising adoption by conventional monetary companies, investor sentiment stays deeply cautious. Hougan mentioned that “Excellent news doesn’t matter within the depths of winter,” and added that these extreme market circumstances sometimes finish not with enthusiasm however via exhaustion and sentiment normalization.
The Bitwise CIO additionally mentioned that institutional flows performed an important position in masking the true extent of the 2025 downturn. He cited information from the Bitwise 10 Giant Cap Crypto Index, which confirmed that belongings like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP skilled smaller declines, between 10% and 20%, largely because of help from ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs).
Different belongings, together with Solana, Litecoin, and Chainlink, skilled typical bear-market declines of 37% to 46%, whereas Cardano, Avalanche, Sui, and Polkadot noticed losses starting from 62% to 75%. Hougan defined that institutional entry and funding via ETFs and DATs offered a buffer for some belongings, whereas retail-focused tokens bore the brunt of the market downturn.
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For example, ETFs and DATs bought over 744,000 Bitcoin throughout the interval, representing roughly $75 billion in help. With out that institutional shopping for, he estimated Bitcoin may have fallen by round 60% since January 2025. As such, a number of elements may mark the top of the present crypto winter, in line with Hougan, who additionally mentioned,
“I feel we’re going to return roaring again sooner somewhat than later. Heck, it’s been winter since January 2025. Spring is definitely coming quickly.”
BTC’s International Standing Weakens
The depth of the present downturn can also be mirrored in Bitcoin’s standing amongst world belongings. As reported by CryptoPotato, Bitcoin has dropped out of the highest ten belongings by market capitalization and now ranks thirteenth globally, in line with CompaniesMarketCap information from February 2.
Its market cap has declined to roughly $1.56 trillion, down from about $2.35 trillion again in July 2025, when it ranked sixth after rallying previous $119,000.
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