Bitcoin’s return to $100,000 is still a popular target throughout the marketplace for 2026, however one bearish outlook argues that the transfer is changing into much less sensible with the price action weakening beneath the $80,000 value stage.
This bearish outlook came from a crypto analyst generally known as Alex Mason on the social media platform X, who predicted that Bitcoin is not going to hit the $100,000 value stage once more this yr as a result of its value motion is in a managed lure inside an ascending channel.
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Bitcoin’s Ascending Channel Could Have Been A Lure
Bitcoin has not traded above $100,000 in 2026 and with the calendar now virtually in the course of the yr, the timeframe for a restoration above six figures is shrinking fast. The worth motion over the previous two months has as an alternative been outlined by an ascending channel, with Bitcoin forming gradual greater highs and better lows from its February low simply above $60,000. The higher boundary has acted as resistance a number of occasions, whereas the inexperienced decrease trendline has served as the primary assist maintaining the restoration alive.
Nonetheless, that very same channel is pointing to a bearish argument. An ascending channel can look bullish on the floor as a result of value is transferring greater, however it could possibly additionally change into a distribution construction when every push upward loses momentum. In response to Mason, Bitcoin’s gradual rise contained in the channel has created pretend energy, giving retail merchants the impression {that a} breakout again to $100,000 remains to be constructing.
The vital second that exposed the pretend energy was the move into the $82,000 CME hole. Bitcoin reached that CME hole in early Could, accomplished the goal, after which was rejected a number of occasions between Could 6 and Could 11. This was a textbook lure before the next leg down.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @AlexMasonCrypto On X
Bitcoin’s Odds Of Hitting $100,000 In 2026
As proven within the chart above, Bitcoin is returning to the decrease half of the channel, placing the inexperienced assist line below strain. If that assist breaks, the construction would not seem like a gradual restoration and the start of a push to a brand new backside.
The primary stage to a brand new backside is a breakdown from the ascending channel. From there, the following goal is round $70,000, adopted by a deeper move to new lows at $60,000. The chart even extends the bearish path deeper, with a dotted projection transferring down to as low as $50,000 by early July.
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A rally to $100,000 would require confidence, liquidity, and powerful follow-through above resistance above $82,000. Bitcoin may even must reclaim the 200-day MA round this identical stage. In response to prediction market Kalshi, there’s only a 32% likelihood that the Bitcoin value will break above $100,000 once more earlier than January 2027.
Featured picture from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
